Hindsight Sports

Whether we've paid attention or not, the San Antonio Spurs haven't gone anywhere after all these years.

In May of 2009, I sat and watched the San Antonio Spurs survive only five games of the Western Conference against a recently Pau Gasol-infused Lakers team. Though three of their losses in the series came by combined 14 points, I remember walking away from that series believing I had seen the beginning of the end of the Duncan-Popovich reign in the Western Conference.

The signs were there. Tim Duncan had just turned 32. Their supporting cast (Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley, Fabrico Oberto, Kurt Thomas, and Brent Berry) had quickly dried up (average age of 35), and was clearly unable to ease the transition past Duncan’s prime. Perhaps most damning of all, Pau Gasol was somehow suddenly a Laker, Chris Paul and Deron Williams had just carried their teams to 56 and 54 wins before turning 25, and a new Big Three was kicking ass and taking names across the coast.  The league’s power balance had appeared to shift overnight and slip from the defending champs’ grasp. The newlook Lakers displayed an extra gear in those five games that the Spurs could no longer match, and this was now the part when they’d go away.

Long live the Duncan-Popovich dynasty.

That was the narrative.

And I believed it.

And I hate myself.

A lot has happened in the five years since the 2008 playoff shortcoming, but the resurgence and sustained success unquestionably began right where the dynasty started in 1998.

As the final seconds of their 2008 season ticked down, Tim Duncan looked any aging athlete does when they are coming to grips with their atrophying athleticism and lost vigor. He had just turned 32 and appeared headed into a different phase of his career, one that would no longer offer us the greatest power forward that ever played, nor include anymore June basketball.

His gradual erosion subsequently ran to script the following three seasons. By 2011, his per-game averages had dipped from 2007’s totals of 20 points, 11 rebounds, and 34 minutes to 13/9/28.  When the top-seeded Spurs (and specifically Duncan) suffered a thorough pounding in the first round of the playoffs from the 8th seeded Grizzles, the clock began ticking and the end of an era seemed as imminent as ever.

The Spurs season was once again ended by the bully on the block, and they walked away looking like a heavyweight boxer on the ropes.

You know the rest from there.

The Spurs finished the following regular season with their best winning percentage (.758) in six seasons, and carried that dominance into the post-season (had won 19 straight games!!), before the kids up in OKC grew up Disney-style before our eyes, and had one of the best four-game stretches offensively that you’ll ever see.

But a historical regular season and a 12-4 playoff record wasn’t what a determined Timmy Duncan had in mind in this stage of his career.

For the fifth consecutive year, the Spurs had failed to reach the Finals, this time finding their kryptonite to be a little youth and a long beard.

Tim Duncan wasn’t getting any younger (at least that’s what I heard), but he sure as hell wouldn’t be going anywhere.

This past offseason, 36 year old (HAVE I METENTIONED HE’S OLD?) Duncan rededicated himself to the goal he had spent 15 seasons chasing, and set out to put the newborn Thunder dynasty on pause. He lost fifteen pounds to improve his mobility and alleviate any additional strain on his already deteriorating body. He sought an additional edge and by working out with a former champion boxer to improve his conditioning. And, a free agent at the time, Duncan sacrificed finances and opted to resign with San Antonio for half of what he had been paid the prior season, allowing the front office more flexibility to bolster the championship roster.

The Virgins Island native had a season that we have never seen before and unprecedentedly went on the upward at age 36, having (by any measure) his best season since the 2008 playoff loss (1st team All-NBA this season after just one 3rd team appearance in past three years).

(Semi-relatedly, he is somehow performing at this level in the midst of a messy divorce.)

As fate would have it, Duncan would not get a chance to avenge last year’s playoff loss to Oklahoma City. Instead, he found himself up against the team up whom he reached the low point of his career against just two years prior.

His rededication this past offseason proved to paid off. Skinny Tim Duncan was more than nimble enough to defend the Grizzles’  pick and roll game, and his off-season conditioning allowed him the endurance to seal a Game 3 victory vs. Memphis in overtime

(I can’t say that the 2011 embarrassment was the impetus for Timmay’s resurgence, but it sure makes for a better narrative, damn it.)

Although Duncan has been its rock and guiding wind since 1998, the Spurs organization has clearly never been about one man.

Tony Parker, who Duncan has since handed the offense over to, ascended from a borderline franchise player in 2008 to the league’s best offensive point guard today. Manu Ginobili (who at 34, has also had to battle father time) has finished the past two seasons healthy (knock on wood) and continued to do just enough “Manu Ginobili Things” along the way.

And I would need a whole ‘nother 1,500 words to tell you about the coaching job Greg Popovich has done in this time (he should really win NBA Coach of the Year every year until he decides to retire).

So, Duncan is basketball’s Benjamin Button. Popovich, Parker, and Ginobli haven’t gone away either. And water is wet.

But what has truly pushed this Spurs team past the post-season brink have the pieces working around the four future Hall of Famers.

After the 2008 season, Popovich and general manager RC Buford looked at the rosters they had constructed that failed to win a title and concluded they could no longer surround their aging stars with savvy vets as they previously had (players like Robert Horry, Bruce Bowen, Brent Barry).

They needed to restock their stable with younger legs that could spell Duncan and Ginobili minutes as they continued to age.

So that’s what they did. They got younger.

The best scouting department in the league went to work and work, finding misfits and passed-over players and developing them into championship basketball players.

When the Cavaliers found no use for 15^th man Danny Green, the Spurs dug through the garbage and found their starting two-guard. When 29 other teams passed on selecting 6’6 DeJuan Blair with no ACL’s, the Spurs dared to groom him into Tim Duncan’s partner in the paint. At the 2007 Draft, San Antonio’s oversea scouts hit once again at 27 with Brazil’s Tiago Splitter, and followed that up the next draft by selecting Geroge Hill (who they were later able to flip for Kawhi Leonard) 26th overall (behind Alexis Ajinca, Kousta Koufus, and, wait for it… Joe Alexander).

The Spurs stayed true to what founded their success from the start – building through the draft, player development, and a cyclical team-first attitude. Boring or not, it is the archetype of how a sports franchise should be run in 2013, and this post-season run serves as a testament to the core values – patience, selflessness, commitment – that the Spurs Way has embodied.

(Interestingly, the “Spurs Way” has always served as a stark contrast to my beloved Lakers’ constant spectacle over the past 15 years that I’ve grown to appreciate.)

After clinching his fifth Finals trip in 15 seasons Monday, coach Greg Popovich explained the philosophy and overriding patience that has carried him back to the pinnacle.

“I think a lot of people think the grass is greener on the other side,” Popovich said, “and if we change this coach or trade these guys, it’s all going to be nirvana after that. I think if you stay the course and you’ve got leaders who are quality character people, you follow them as long as you can.”

“It’s tough to do, to maintain something that long.”

Maintained they have indeed.

Since the Spurs hired Greg Popovich in 1996, 129 different NBA head coaches have been hired and fired. In the last four seasons years alone, upwards of 15 All Star players have been traded or changed teams in hopes of winning a championship (James, Paul, Anthony, Howard, Harden, Stoudemire, Williams, Bynum, Johnson;  I could keep going). In a league of impatient ring chasing and myopic, “win right now” GM’s and franchises, the Spurs have stayed the course, been as consistent as Duncan’s 17-foot bank shot, and have won four championships to show for it.

It’s not boring. It’s something to stop and truly appreciate in 2013, and something we may never see again in the NBA (or pro sports) in our lifetimes.

15 years after the title run that started it all, and five seasons after a seemingly fatal Conference Finals defeat, the Spurs are back in the Finals, cast as the ugly ducking from a smaller market, and matced against a celebrated opponent with brighter stars and spryer legs.

The contrast between the two teams’ construction is stark, as are the odds against the Spurs.

I have no clue who Popovich can throw at LeBron for 45 minutes aside from Kawhi Leonard (who will be giving LeBron roughly 30 pounds anyways). I’m not sure if San Antonio will be able to exploit Miami’s glaring lack of interior size and strength. Neither of us know whether Dwyane Wade’s knee will allow him to travel back in time, or if Manu Ginobili has enough left in the tank for one last big game performance. And, per usual, it is hard to forecast the Finals while accounting for its ridiculous 2-3-2 format.

(Quick compulsory tangent: We’re looking at the most intriguing Finals matchup since 2008. How many times do we get to watch yesteryear’s dynasty take (possibly) one last shot at a title against the present day reign? This matchup is sports movie stuff. The 1991 Finals (Jordan wining his first title by beating Magic in his last Finals) is the NBA’s only historical precedent.

This series will feature the following: the two best teams in basketball, two of the 10 greatest players ever (possibly guarding each other at times).. up to nine total Hall of Famers (Spoelstra qualifies if he wins three titles).. tons of historical ramifications (for Wade and Parker especially).. tons of future implications (How does a Miami loss affect the Summer of 2014? Does Duncan retire if he wins?).. all of this.. every possible contrast between the two teams.. and to ice the cake, you have the delicious irony of David Stern trying to tell Greg Popovich how to run his team back in November.

And if you still want Thunder-Heat, then here… watch First Take re-runs.)

Time (and Joey Crawford, of course) will tell how history will write itself.

But I am sure of two things:

The Spurs haven’t gone anywhere.

And I’m certainly not counting them out again.

(Spurs in 7.)

When Thunder fans are busy cursing Sam Presti for the next decade, this will be the last memory they hold of the dynasty that never was..

I believe the last time I found free time to write, I was breaking down the over/under on the number of times Ray Lewis mentioned God in his post-Super Bowl on-field interview. (You know, back in the days when Joe Flacco wasn’t ELITE yet.) So yeah, it’s been a while. Well, stranger, today I’m back and ready to examine the NBA playoffs and give you a column stat line of a 26/8/2, 9-26 shooting, 17. 4 efficiency rating (hey, Carmelo!) that is sure to be 1,500 words too long (let’s do this!). The initial 16 teams postseason gave us a admirable head fake after a first weekend that saw every home team (most of them handily) win game 1. Then the 2013 NBA got one or five drinks into their system and things got uncharacteristically loopy. This column has sat in my stomach like a 9-month year old fetus for the past month and today it’s finally coming out (metaphor.. take two!). Here is what the last month of basketball has taught me.

Stock down: JR Smith 

Put it this way: f a twitter account titled, “Did JR Smith Miss?” exists, and Rihanna weighed in on his late night activity on Instagram (you can’t make this stuff up), then JR Smith probably turned back into JR Smith, and didn’t have a good post-season.

The Knicks played Russian roulette all season by depending on him to be their “number two scorer”, and they eventually paid the price when it mattered most. Their overdependence on Smith, (who they signed to a one year, three million dollar deal in July) shows just how flawed and financially unbalanced their roster is. (Meanwhile, their highest-paid player watches from the bench for the whole second half, and their 14 million dollar defensive specialist was less effective defensively than Keyon Martin.)

Stock up: Mike Conley 

Let’s see, he entered the league as the number four pick and was known as “Greg Oden’s teammate” and/or “The Other Guy On Ohio State.”  Since then, public perception of his career has been in an annual state of flux; from “future All-Star “ to “long-term project” to “probable bust” to “serviceable starter” to “complementary player on a good team” to now“ quarterback and heart and soul of a legitimate title contender.”  I can’t say I’ve kept faith in Mike Conley as anything more than an career-long average starter, and thought his 45 million dollar extension in 2010 (after a season in which he averaged 12-2-5) was, well, perplexing.

Nowadays, to extend the quarterback metaphor, Conley has become like a really, really good game managing quarterback on a defensive centric team – like a rich man’s version of 2011 Alex Smith. He probably won’t ever be considered great, but that’s not his job. He executes a defined role to a tee, and knows exactly how to run the team — when to push the pace in transition and when to slow the game down and pound the ball into Randolph and Gasol. He’s grown from the 19 year old runt we saw come out of Ohio State into an elite defensive player at his position, and was the foremost reason why the Memphis offense stayed afloat after trading their leading scorer in February.

However, just as it became difficult for the 49ers to advance deep with an overmatched Smith at the helm, the Grizzlies’ fate in the Western Conference Finals will likely boil down whether or notConley can stand toe to toe with All-Star Tony Parker, and rise up from good to great. Like here.

(Speaking of Mike Conley’s ascendance, please take this time to comprehend and appreciate the pure saturation of talent and youth currently at the point guard position. By my count, we currently have eight (eight!) stars (Paul, Westbrook, Rondo, Rose, Williams, Parker, Irving, Curry), six guys future All-Stars 25 or younger (Conley, Lawson, Holliday, Lillard, Wall, Rubio), four guys with potential to join the last group (Walker, Evans, Jennings, Teague, and maybe Vasquez), and a slew of high-impact veterans (Jack, Calderon, Hill, Dragic, Lowry, Miller, and HOF Steve Nash). Now compare 2013’s talent surplus to2004, when we were looking at a top 5 of Kidd, Nash, Cassel, Marbury, and B-Diddy. Thank the Basketball Gods.)

Stock down: Shaq

He’s become like the really obnoxious, attention-deprived kid at the birthday party who NOBODY likes and wishes wasn’t there to make things awkward, but nobody ends up saying anything because his Mom helped pay for the party.

(Please note that Shaq was only able to get away with this stunt because Ernie Johnson was not there to corral the conversation per usual. EJ gives the most underappreciated performance on TV.)

Stock stable: Kevin Durant    

Nine games of “Project Durantasolo” didn’t teach me anything that I didn’t already know; A) Kevin Durant was born to score the basketball but is also fatally unselfish, and B) watching one great player have to pull a rabbit out of his butt everything single possession is about as depressing as watching a horse and buggy have to schlepp a group of fat kids around town (see: 2009 Cavaliers).

(Quick un-related tangent: God bless the 24-hour news cycle that frequently manufactures news/fodder for it’s own sake, but there is absolutely no story/reasonable criticism with Durant saying this season “wasn’t a waste” for him.

He’s right. For him and the rest of the Thunder, this season wasn’t a waste. To compare Durant’s approach and expectations to Kobe’s “championship or bust” mentality is ludicrous. Durant and his teammates have never collectively won anything together, and these post-season shortcomings will serve as a lesson and stepping stone towards a future title. That’s the way the NBA has worked for 60 years. Every great champion needed to first have the taste of failure linger. Kobe has five rings and learns little from playoff failures after 15 seasons in comparison to Durant, Why do I have to spend time explaining intuitive concepts to dumb people? God!)

Stock up: Russell Westbrook  

“Westbrook shoots too much. Pass it to Durant, already!” had become so commonplace over the past couple of seasons that it became one of the default opinions that the clueless basketball began using in conversations to hide the fact that they know very little. (You know who you are and I can detect you like a sixth sense.)

For years, his detractors wished he would transform into something he wasn’t. Upon entering the league, he inherited the thankless job as Kevin Durant’s number two and status as Oklahoma City’s “forgotten child,” and at points, it seemed like Russell Westbrook was never going to win his satisfy his critics, let alone win them over. Season averages of 23 points and 7 assists with an efficiency rating of 24 (second among point guards only to Chris Paul), only led you to notice his shooting volume exceeded that of Durant. His historically unprecedented explosiveness and athleticism at the point guard position, wasn’t good enough unless he was racing to pass Durant the ball. Never missing a single basketball game in his life and playing balls to the wall every single night from October to June only meant less opportunity for Durant to shine. When he became one of four players to score 43 points in a Finals game since 1985 (Iverson, Shaq and Jordan seems like good company to me), you wondered why Durant didn’t score 44.

The player you spent years trying to change and pleading to stay out of Durant’s way was suddenly gone. The Thunder essentially crumbled into the 2009 Cavaliers, and contrary to what many thought, Durant’s efficiency dropped significantly without his sidekick. The aforementioned “good” that Westbrook brings to the table became conspicuous in his absence. He was not there to blow by his defender, attack the paint, and create an open three’s on the perimeter for Martin or Durant, or an easy dunk down low for Ibaka. (By the way, the top 3 teammate assist combinations in 2013: 1)Westbrook to Durant; 2) Paul to Griffin; 3) Westbrook to Ibaka. The notion that he’s a reluctant passer is absurd.) He was not there to provide direction  and inject life into a reserved supporting cast, and counterbalance Durant’s steady demeanor. He was not their to swing momentum after an opponent’s 7-0 run with a steal, dunk and five f-bombs.

The lesson that we should walk away with is this: every player in the league has flaws. (For example, Durant gets bullied by more physical defenders. See: 2012 Finals). Some players like Westbrook possess more evident  flaws — his occasional recklessness and poor decision-making — than others. If we are going to nitpick every great players’ few flaws, then what is the point of being fans of the game? You just have to learn to look past the thorns in order to enjoy the rose. Let Russell Westbrook be Russell Westbrook.

Stock up: Nate Robinson    

I can see it now… bad NBA GM’s lining up and opening their checkbooks to overpay a guy who couldn’t get on the floor for more than four minutes in game 7of a NBA Finals.

This (now famous) block of Melo serves as a symbol of how important Hibbert has become to the league's best defense.

Stock up: Roy Hibbert and Andrew Bogut     

Four months ago, we were talking about how the Pacers made a huge mistake by giving Hibbert a 58 million/4 years max deal in July, as well as how Warriors crippled themselves financially by betting on Bogut to stay healthy with four year, 60 million dollar contract. At the time, Bogut looked like a guy with too much residual damage from injuries to compete at a high level, and Hibbert’s (averaging nine points and eight rebounds at the time) was crumbling under the pressure brought on by new price. Fast-forward through months of improved production, and both centers exceeded expectations of their defensive impact and low post presence. Hibbert has anchored a defense that advanced statistics will tell you is historically great, and Bogut has looked as spry as he did during his 2009 career year and guarded Tim Duncan admirably in the second round.

Stock down: Vinny Del Negro  

VDN playing eleven players significant minutes in an elimination game will nevernot be funny. It was basically the only way for the Clippers – a team who clearly had too many guys and not enough minutes to go around all season — to have their season could end.

Stock down: Perimeter Players Who Are Paid Like Stars but Aren’t Really Stars

The elephant remaining in the room during is the fact that the team began playing its best basketball after trading away leading scorer Rudy Gay in February.

As it turns out, even though Gay scored a team-high 18 points and carried the responsibility of crunch time scoring, his high-volume shooting often limited the team’s collective offensive potential, restricted ball movement. Analytics reveal that, in addition to his contract heavily restricting future personal moves, Rudy Gay’s contested 18-foot jump shots were one of the least effective ways for the Grizzles to score, and also indicated that, with better ball movement, Gasol, Randolph, Conley, and others could supplement much of Gay’s lost production in an even more efficient manner – essentially optimizing the league’s (at the time) 25th rated offense.

The trade has almost become a basketball analytics’ own “Moneyball” story and could very well inspire future “numbers-motived” trades in front offices around the league, and could spell trouble for players of Gay’s breed — perimeter players with an All-Star shooting volume but not All-Star level production – because GM’s now realize the offensive black hole they can create.

(FYI, the Indiana Pacers were actually the first to experience this revelation when Danny Granger was ruled out before the start of the season. My guess for the next case of Rudy Gay Syndrome? Dion Waiters.)

Stock Up: The Legend of Tim Duncan

For years, I’ve known that in 20 years, when I reflect back on Tim Duncan’s career in 30 years I’ll remember that he’s the greatest power forward of all-time, the most underappreciated superstar of any sport ever (not even close), the trademark 15-foot bank, the impeccable fundamentals, the signature stare while complaining to officials, and his historical 2003 playoff run. And now to top it of, I’ll remember that Timmay Duncan is playing as well as he ever has at age 37. I understand that it’s easy to become  immune to the media’s hyperbole and overexposure about things like this, but please just take a moment to appreciate what Tim Duncan is doing right now.

Stock up: Harrison Barnes   

Speaking on behalf of North Carolina basketball fans everywhere… We always knew you were clutch, Harrison! (Okay, he was 9/26…but last time I checked that’s better than 3/16.)

Stock stable: Carmelo Anthony

I get the criticism, and I too wouldn’t want to land on his pick-up basketball team either, but I will come to Carmelo’s defense in these playoffs because given the circumstances because I don’t know what he could have done much differently in the final nine games. Carmelo is again stuck in the same predicament he found himself in during his time in Denver: insufficient supporting cast with little reason for hope. Tyson Chandler was mystifyingly ineffective; Shumpert and Felton often disappeared when it mattered most; Amare Stoudemire has become an 18 million dollar anchor; JR Smith is still missing jump shots; Kenyon Martin was involved; oh, and Jason Kidd was 0-16 shooting with zero points in 172 postseason minutes (in his defense, at least he remembered to pick up his paycheck).

It’s becomes hard to criticize Melo’s decision to shoot when he only had that pile of disappoints to count on. Indiana’s defense ranked as the best statistically in the regular season, and looked more stifling than ever while zeroing in on Melo. Paul George was the second best perimeter defender this season (all hail LeBron), and harassed him one-on-one for six straight games. The fact that Melo was able to score 27+ points in 4/6 games with a shooting percentage north of 25 was an impressive feat in itself.

Big picture, he’s 28 years old and has only made it through three playoff series. But before you overreact by default, please realize that once the calendar turned May, his supporting cast was nothing more than a really, really expensive version of the 2007 Cavaliers. And I will remind you that in 2009, with a competent supporting cast around him with pieces that actually fit and made sense, Melo led the Nuggets to within two wins of a Finals matchup with Orlando in which they would have been favorite. (I watched every game of that series against the Lakers, and the Nuggets looked like the better team in four of those six games. Just couldn’t collectively finish down the stretch.)

Stock up: Paul George

18-9-5, 2 steals, All-World defense — you’re looking at the NBA playoff’s best kept secret whose coming out party is only being overshadowed by baby face out in Oakland.

(Semi-related fact that I found pretty cool: The Pacers are the first team to reach the conference finals without a single player draft in the top 5 since the Utah Jazz in 1994. Kudos to one of the best front offices in the league for building a small market contender the right way over the years — finding top 5 talent in the mid-first round (George, Hibbert, Granger, and Kawhi Leonard, who they flipped for George Hill), finding value late in the draft (Hansbrough, Stephenson) and making smart, fiscally responsible veteran free agent signings (West, Mahinmi))

Stock down: Sam Presti  

Maybe I’m beating a dead horse, but wouldn’t it have made the most sense, in the NBA’s Era of Super Teams and Small Ball, for Presti to have just decided to accumulate the most talent possible by resigning three of the 12 best players in the league? The logic behind his decision to opt for two perimeters players and one big is defensible and the right answer more times than not, but this was an exception. Which leads me to…

Thunder GM, Sam Presti, bet on Serge Ibaka over James Harden for the long term. It's not going so well.

It became painfully clear in Russell Westbrook’s absence that Serge Ibaka is not the cornerstone player of a championship team that Presti had hoped for. Defensively, he’s an elite weak side shot blocker and a luxury to have, but offensively, he’s only capable of scoring in three ways: offensive put-backs, dump off passes for a dunk, and an “evolving” mid-range jump shot.  The last two were largely taken away without Westbrook on the floor to find him.

(So what’s the difference between luxuries and non-luxuries? Think of it this way: LeBron and Wade scoring 30+ in a big game for the Heat is a non-luxury because they can count on that every night to help them win. Meanwhile, Allen, Battier, or Miller shooting 6/8 from three is a luxury because it helped them win, but they didn’t depend on it to happen in order to win. It’s like having brown sugar in your morning oatmeal.,.. analogies rule!!)

If your “cornerstone player,” who you chose for the long term over James Harden can’t raise his game to a higher level than what we’ve seen in these playoffs, then he’s evidently a luxury, not the third banana on a title team.

I’m slightly embarrassed to admit that there have been nights that I’ve laid awake bothered as fan of basketball by Sam Presti’s inexplicably stubborn refusal to simply amnesty Kendrick Perkins’ (who has become a useless NBA player) 7 million dollar contract in order to afford Durant, Harden, Westbrook and Ibaka for the long term.  I can only imagine what Thunder fans will experience in the coming years.

Stock Up: Steph Curry  

I love watching Steph Curry, you love watching Steph Curry, everybody loves watching Steph Curry. His coming-out party this post-season was a godsend for a usually lackluster opening two rounds, and gave casual fans a rare underdog story to immerse in. At times I felt like I was watching some eight-seed try to hang with a one seed in the Tournament.

Now that the party’s over, its time to shed a broader perspective on Baby Face’s recent barrage. So allow me to be your new most hated blogger and temper your unconditional love.

I don’t think Steph Curry is a superstar — yet. I already explained that much of what Serge Ibaka brings to the table is “luxury” rather than a building block — the decorative frosting flowers on the birthday cake, not the cake itself. That’s what Curry’s 6/11 three point shooting performances are – the best damn frosting flowers imaginable. Steph Curry had enough trouble maintaining the magic over a six game playoff series and won’t come out of the gates shooting 6/11 from three in November. Regression to the mean is just the way sports work. And when Curry isn’t burying 26-footers, he still a) is below average defender, b) isn’t a natural distributor, c) has ankles made of Styrofoam, and d) isn’t the guy his coach wanted taking the final shot. And that’s the most damning evidence against his superstar status. Quite honestly, I don’t know why Mark Jackson chooses to give Jarret Jack that responsibility, but there are few litmus tests for superstar status, and if you’re a 6’3’’ guard, crunch time responsibilities is one.

He just turned 25 and hasn’t nearly reached full potential yet — know, I get it. He’ll mature into be a superstar in the near future and I’ll be just as excited as you. But until then, I think, at his baseline, he is an All-Star, not a superstar.

Stock up: LeBron

I don’t know if he’s human, you don’t know if he’s human, and the lab results are inconclusive. Something I am sure of though is that LeBron’s reign over the league has changed my outlook and the way outlook I watch, analyze, and enjoy NBA basketball. I can’t help but hear the voice in the back of my head whispering, “None of this will even end up mattering. LeBron has won. Cancel the season.”

One of my biggest disappointments as a sports fan will forever remain missing out on Michael Jordan’s prime.  I will never know or experience what it felt like to watch him at his apex, but I imagine it felt something like what I feel when I watch LeBron continue to defy precedent – that he is so great, he seemingly holds the fate of the league in his hands. 2013 championship or not, I will one day tell my grandkids about the time that the league belonged to LeBron.

(And yes, if he tears an ACL in the near future, feel free to push me off a bridge for this jinx.)

My excitement over/under 10 on a 1-10 scale? OVER.

(Editor’s note: With the 2013 MLB Season set to start tonight with a truly riveting Astros-Rangers match-up, my buddy Dillon wanted to share his thoughts and make some predictions for the new season with a little help from none other than Will Hunting and company, as I continue to struggle to find free time to write this semester. Play ball!)

I recently re-watched Major League and began thinking that it would be a good idea to spice up what could be a potentially tortuous column –talking advanced statistics by including some movie quotes. So here it is; your 2013 Hindsight Sports MLB Preview with some good ole IMBD quotes from, a personal favorite, Good Will Hunting [random, but just consider it proof that it can be done with any movie].

Note: tried to keep it brief and without mention of any sabermetrics. I couldn’t help myself here: Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs announced that they reached an agreement on a unified replacement level, allowing WAR, the newly, widely popularized advanced statistic, to measure players on the same scale [in 2012, defensive specialist Brendan Ryan had a 3.5 WAR on Baseball-Reference and a 1.4 on Fangraphs]. Baseball-Reference places a larger emphasis on Ryan’s defensive efficiency, which raises concerns about how we know this actually works and clearly it’s an inexact science as noted in an article that appeared in ESPN the Magazine – It just takes some faith.

Over/under in parentheses. Prediction key: > for over, < for under. Best bets are starred.

Will: Do you like apples?

Clark: Yeah.

Will: Well, I got her number. How do you like them apples?

These teams are apples – and as you could guess, I like them.

>Cincinnati (88.5) – Is this the year that the fragile rotation begins to fall apart? That’s a question looming over the heads of many Reds fans, but if the pitching staff doesn’t splinter this team should put together a 95-win season. Also; it may be true, but if I hear another analyst say something along the lines of “the addition of Shin Shoo Choo adds a much needed boost at the top of the lineup” I may peel my own skin off. What they fail to account for is his defensive inadequacies, which should be noted, especially since he will be in center field this year. 

*>Nationals (90) – Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman, and a healthy Stephen Strasburg headline what could be one of the best rotations in the National League this year. A rebound season from the newcomer Denard Span and a breakout season to an NL MVP candidate from Bryce Harper will be instrumental in allowing this team to win their first pennant

<Detroit (90) – Victor Martinez returns, Torii Hunter adds more defensive help, Miguel Cabrera continues doing Miguel Cabrera things, and the rotation becomes one of the best in the AL with the emergence of Doug Fister as a viable ace (except the fact that he’s behind the best pitcher of this generation). I can’t imagine them not making the playoffs, but this team has a history of coming out of the gate limping.

>Angels (89.5) – Although their rotation is a bit of a question mark, four of their first five hitters have the last names Trout, Pujols, Hamilton, Trumbo. Worst-case scenario, they struggle out of the gate and slip into a wild card spot by season’s end.

>Braves (86) – The Upton’s and Jason Heyward make up the best defensive and most offensively productive outfield in the league. However, the Upton brothers have a reputation of being wildly inconsistent from year to year, so who knows. Also, they may be good material for SportsCenter, but Heyward can’t be forgotten. It’s time for him to make the leap.

>Blue Jays (86.5) – An actual reason to acknowledge Canada’s existence
[ordering drinks]

Lambeau: Perrier.

Sean: That’s French for “club soda.”

“Oh, you arrogant sh*t! That’s why I don’t come to the g*ddamned reunions, ’cause I can’t stand that look in your eye. Ya know, that condescending, embarrassed look. You think I’m a failure. I know who I am, and I’m proud of what I do. It was conscientious choice. I didn’t fuck up!” – Sean Maguire

“That may be, but at least I won’t be unoriginal” – Will Hunting

“See, the sad thing about a guy like you is, in 50 years, you’re gonna start doing some thinking on your own and you’re going to come up with the fact that there are two certainties in life: one, don’t do that, and two, you dropped 150 grand on a f*cking education you could have got for a dollar fifty in late charges at the public library” – Will Hunting.

Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2013 (and every other year for the foreseeable future) winners of the condescending, unoriginal, $250 million payroll, unexciting team award winners. 

<Dodgers (90) – As a big proponent of efficient spending…gag.

<Yankees (86.5) – The Yanks are suddenly a payroll-wary team and might have to rely on pitching, defense, and their legs to win some games – at least early on in the season without Teixeira, Jeter, and Granderson. Did we use ‘Yanks’, ‘payroll-wary’, and ‘rely on pitching, defense, and their legs’ in the same sentence? What kind of alternate universe are we living in? Anyways, one sub-par season coming right up with that Perrier.

“You’re not perfect, sport, and let me save you the suspense: this girl you’ve met, she’s not perfect either.” – Sean 

Sean: Hey, Gerry, In the 1960s there was a young man that graduated from the University of Michigan. Did some brilliant work in mathematics. Specifically bounded harmonic functions. Then he went on to Berkeley. He was assistant professor. Showed amazing potential. Then he moved to Montana, and blew the competition away.

Lambeau: Yeah, so who was he?

Sean: Ted Kaczynski. 

“Look – you’re my best friend, so don’t take this the wrong way. In twenty years, if you’re still livin’ here, comin’ over to my house to watch the Patriots games, still workin’ construction, I’ll f*ckin’ kill you. That’s not a threat; now, that’s a fact. I’ll f*ckin’ kill you.” – Chuckie Sullivan

Teams that certainly have that potential, but may just not be able to put the pieces together.

>Rays (86) –Desmond Jennings, Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria, three top tier starters in David Price, Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore, and one of the best managers in the game (Not to mention, future perennial all-star Will Myers making an appearance at some point in the season) should give them a very good chance to win the division, even in the unpredictable AL East.

<Giants (86) – Giants GM Brian Sabean is looking like Rain Man right about now after his team wins yet another World Series, and much like their brethren, the New York Football Giants, there is no such thing as an unexpected run to the title

*<Rangers (87) – Hamilton trekked it out to b-e-a-utiful Los Angeles without remorse. Losing a clubhouse presence like Michael Young can’t be quantified by advanced statistics and even the players aren’t sure who will step up (Ian Kinsler, the apparent heir, recently telling management that he doesn’t want that pressure). Nevertheless, Ron Washington is a better manager than people give him credit for and figuring this stuff out shouldn’t be too much of a problem

>Cardinals (85.5) – If injury-prone players Matt Holliday, Allen Craig, Carlos Beltran, Adam Wainwright, and Jaime Garcia can all stay healthy….wait don’t we say this every year?

>Athletics (83) – A lot of young talent in players such as Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Reddick, and the first three in the rotation; Billy Beane & Co. made some impressive moves over the offseason in acquiring blooming shortstop Jed Lowrie, and improving behind the plate with John Jaso. As with all young teams, there are some questions as to whether they can produce at the same level as last year (notably: 7^th most home runs in an extremely pitcher-friendly park), but our beloved bobo doll in the Astros should bring the A’s a few extra wins this year

>Pirates (79) – “Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things and no good thing ever dies”. That’s all we’ll say.

*>Indians (77.5) – Despite having humongous question marks on the mound, they are my favorite to become the next “smoke and mirrors” team with an October scene much like this this. Plus, how could you root against a team with easily the most laid-back manager/player duo in Francona and Swisher. Add those two to the list of people I’d love to share a beer with.

[impersonating Will at a job interview] “You’re suspect! Yeah, you! I don’t know what your reputation is in this town, but after the sh*t you tried to pull today, you can bet I’ll be looking into you. Now the business we have, heretofore, you can speak with my aforementioned attorney. Good day, gentlemen; and until that day comes, keep your ear to the grindstone.” – Chuckie Sullivan 

Easily most overlooked scene in the movie. Nothing really important to the plot, but it’s still entertaining. Case in point, these teams, they’re just here for entertainment, maybe some mid-season headlines as they flip-flop over whether or not to buy or sell at the deadline.

<Phillies (81.5) – This is the victory lap for an aging veteran squad – might make some noise but it will not be enough, even with the additional wild card.

>White Sox (80½) – Ditto.

>Brewers (79½) – Recently added Kyle Lohse should bolster what could be a surprisingly impressive staff if ace Yovani Gallardo finally makes the leap, and Mike Fiers begins to fulfill his potential. Plus, the lineup is nearly the same as last year, including former Angels’ blue-chip shortstop Jean Segura that came over in the Greinke deal. However, factoring in a horrendous bullpen, they’re probably facing somewhere around a .500 season

<Boston Red Sox (79½) – Smell that? I don’t either but if it did smell it would be the smell of the changing of the guard in the AL East

>Kansas City Royals (79)

>Diamondbacks (81.5)

“My wife used to fart in her sleep.” – Sean Maguire

<Orioles (76.5) – Just know, per advanced metrics, teams that sell their soul to the devil for wins in a particular season are usually borrowing against next year. That’s part of the reason the over/under is so low here. I like them to win between 75 and 80 games this year, but being in the AL East, I’m leaning towards to the lower end.

*>Cubs (72) – Anthony Rizzo and Jeff Samardzija breakout seasons are impending and Starlin Castro has to figure out how to avoid throwing the ball 15 rows deep on routine plays eventually, right…? (twiddling thumbs, whistling)…(tapping toe, scratching head)…anyways if you’re looking for a team that could make some noise in…err… May then look no further than here. They have the recipe down to make a Pirates-esque one-day appearance in first place: just much earlier in the season.

<Marlins (64.5) – Giancarlo Stanton and every other relevant player will be gone come August, attendance will probably drop below game-time temperature a few times, and owner Jeffrey Loria will confirm my theory that he is running the organization by mirroring Rachel Phelps from Major League (insert picture hyperlink here, or in column itself).

<Padres (74.5) – This is all.

>Mariners (76.5)

<Mets (74) 

<Rockies (71.5)

>Twins (64.5)

“You’re legally allowed to drink now, so we figured the best thing for you was a car.” – Billy McBride

Astros (59.5) They’re legally allowed to drink now in that maybe this is the year we stop making Triple-A talent level jokes, but their friends decided it would be best to buy them a car by driving them out to the deathtrap of a division in the AL West.

And finally, some season predictions…

America, meet the Harbaugh's. Harbaugh's, America.

It’s going to happen. On Sunday night, I will watch the final few minutes of the Harbowl tick down and then begin the annual suffering through the seven month offseason — of course, not before I either watch Ray Lewis strip down post-game, spew out Bible verses and shed every last tear, or Alex Smith try to act excited about a 49ers Super Bowl victory. Then I will have to fill the football void by talking about stories like “Will the Jets trade Revis?,” “Which lineman will the Chiefs draft first overall?,” and “Well no **** Ray Lewis used PED’s to come back from torn triceps in two months at age 37!” I can’t wait.

But before it happens, I won’t waste this opportunity to finish these playoffs strong with my picks against the spread (8-2 in these playoffs…no need for an applause) and preview the last game that we have left. But first, a brief interruption for some Super Bowl prop bets — because this wouldn’t be an internet blog post about the Super Bowl without mentioning prop bets. Here are a few that I liked…

Harbaugh parents will be shown on TV over 2 times

When I first read the over/under for this prop bet, I thought it was a typo. The number will be closer to 12 than two.

Ray Lewis will mention God in his post-game victory interview over 3 times

Another apparent typo! (I’ve been amusing myself the past couple of weeks by  screaming “NO WEAPON FORMED AS A TEAM AGAINST US SHALL PROSPER!” in public situations. Highly recommended. It’s getting a laugh about a quarter of the time.)

The Ravens will kick a longer field goal that the 49ers 

The only athletes who have had their confidence shattered more than David Akers in the past 3 months are Alex Smith and Pau Gasol. He’s really the only major concern that Niners fans should have about this game. On the other hand, Ravens rookie kicker Justin Tucker and his rapping capabilities have been money all season.

Alex Smith will take a snap from center in this game (+500) 

I would never wish injury upon Colin Kaepernick, but man that scenario would be compelling. Eerie plot similarities to the Brady/Bledsoe in the 2001 AFC Championship game.

More receiving yards by Randy Moss (-5.5) than points scored by Kobe against the Pistons on Sunday

Two reasons: 1. Kobe is currently sacrificing his quest to catch Kareem’s scoring record to amazingly reinvent himself and suddenly become a “facilitator” (another bet: over 9,000 more times we will hear him referred to as a facilitator by talking heads on TV in the coming weeks) at age 34. 2. If you’re going to call out Jerry Rice and claim yourself as the greatest receiver of all-time, you’re going to need to back that up on the biggest stage. Randy is going to win me some straight cash homey. I just know it.

5/2: The color of the Gatorade that will be dumped on the winning Harbaugh will be yellow

Don’t overthink it – it’ll be yellow.

Alicia Keys over 2 minutes and 10 seconds to sing the National Anthem 

The thought of grown men sitting on the edge of their coach with a stopwatch during the National Anthem with a large amounts of money at stake is why I love the Super Bowl.

President Obama will pick the Ravens to win his pregame interview (-200)

The man works 40 miles outside of Baltimore and knows there is zero chance that the Democrats are ever going to lose San Francisco.  And that’s all the politics you’ll ever hear from me. Here’s five things to note about the actual game…

1. Considering the recent stretch of competitive Super Bowls that we’ve been privileged with, I am cynically preparing myself for this game to be a dud. I think we’re overdue.

2. Given how well the coaches know each other (did you know they’re brothers?!), I expect at least one of them to pull a trick out of their bag (onside kick, fake punt, etc.) to try to catch the other off guard and shift momentum.

3. We know the way to beat a pocket quarterback like Joe Flacco is to consistently apply pressure, and in effect, force him to take his eyes off his receivers down field. Well, Aldon Smith still hasn’t sacked a quarterback since week 15 and Justin Smith hasn’t been fully effective since returning from torn triceps. If the 49ers’ pass rush is able to return to old form in this game, I can’t imagine Baltimore winning in any scenario.

4.  During their first three playoff games, the Ravens’ defense was able to use their best personnel package –nickel package with five defensive backs – for the majority of their snaps because Indianapolis, Denver and New England all wanted to spread Baltimore out with three and four wide receiver sets. Conversely, San Francisco will line up with six and seven offensive linemen sets, and Baltimore will be forced to substitute in a defensive linemen – likely Terrance Cody or Ma’ake Kemoeatu –for cornerback Chykie Brown. Brown has played better than both Cody and Kemoeatu this season and in the playoffs.

5. If you know that you like San Francisco to win the game, I would recommend the 18/1 odds on Vernon Davis winning MVP. Other than the option running attack, Davis poses the biggest threat to the Ravens defense, and if the 49ers are going to win the game, Davis will very likely play a big part. As we saw in the NFC Championship game, he’s a matchup nightmare for just about any defender. You can bet Jim Harbaugh is looking to exploit his matchup with Baltimore’s slower-footed linebackers.

(Also, I would highly encourage you to read the two pieces that Grantland’s Chris Ryan wrote about the Ravens containing Kaepernick and Joe Flacco throwing against the 49ers secondary.)

The case for Baltimore:  San Francisco’s secondary has shown it can be thrown on when their front seven isn’t getting pressure (they’ve allowed a 396 yard game to Matt Ryan and a 446 yard game to Tom Brady in the last six weeks)…Colin Kaepernick has gotten off to a slow start in his first two playoff games, which could allow Flacco to build an early lead and gain momentum…. as I explained before, San Francisco’s pass rush isn’t what it used to be, and Baltimore’s offensive line has done a great job in pass protection these playoffs…the Ravens have shown strong resiliency in these playoffs and won’t panic if they fall behind early…David Akers is a disaster waiting to happen…Baltimore has the feel of a team of destiny.

The case for San Francisco: They’re better in all three phases…Baltimore doesn’t have the athletes on defense to contain Kaepernick… Baltimore was able to “out-physical” both Denver and New England, but San Francisco is the most physical team in the league and instead of spreading them out, will run the ball down their throat…Jim Harbugh is the best coach in the NFL and has had two weeks to prepare for Baltimore.

The verdict: When the initial line of 6.5 came out for this game two weeks ago, I thought I had my mind made up. I had watched this Ravens team defy the odds too many times to give them as many as six points in a game that could very well win.

Of course, now that the line sits at 3.5 (and it doesn’t look like it will move before kickoff), we have a different story. I think the 49ers are the better team, and can beat Baltimore at its own game by lining up and playing smash mouth. Coming into the playoffs, the only major flaw I saw with the 49ers was their ability to come from behind after giving up an early lead, and in both of their playoff games, Colin Kaepernick has overcome his own mistakes and led them from behind. From start to finish, the 49ers have been then best team in the 2012-13 season. And, I’m not wild about it given Baltimore’s resiliency, but I’m taking the best team to win the Super Bowl.

The pick: San Francisco 31, Baltimore 17  (San Francisco -3.5 over Baltimore)